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ZweigWhite Perspectives
9/23/2009
International hot and not spots
It was not too long ago that architecture, engineering, and construction firms were basking in a bottomless trove of projects overseas. The pace of development was intense, the fees were juicy, and there was enough work to go around for anyone with the gumption to simply get on a plane and go there. When design and construction came to a screeching halt last year, the impact was equally disruptive and disappointing as it had been glorious. The economic events that followed left projects half designed, buildings partially finished, and invoices unfortunately unpaid. It also left the industry asking lots of questions—many of which still have no answers. So, we spoke to a handful of firms actively working on international projects to find out what they see and hear about those market segments and geographic regions now. We also asked what they anticipate as we head into 2010 and beyond. Here are their thoughts: Everything in moderation. “There are still projects in the Middle East—it’s just not the gold rush it once was,” says Michael Hamilton, principal at Forefront Structural Engineers, Inc. (Chicago, IL). “We anticipate all international work will be slow to come back on, as has been forecasted. These governments are committed but, growth really hinges on when banking realigns itself. Right now, there are better investments other than real estate.” It is not a question of whether the work will be there, Hamilton says, but the pace of development will change and simply shift in new directions. Sustainability matters. Steven Baldridge, president of Baldridge & Associates Structural Engineering (Honolulu, HI) also sees this transition. “The speculative stuff is gone. In Dubai, the government is investing in educational projects; while Saudi Arabia is now looking to build economic centers, healthcare, and universities.” Focusing on infrastructure and projects that benefit the general population are a good sign, Baldridge says, as tourism and oil simply won’t be able to sustain what’s been built over the last several years. The missing piece, at least in the Middle East, is the mid-sized, affordable construction, says Hamilton. “That hasn’t happened yet but it will have to. Abu Dhabi wants to grow in a sustainable way and do things where the Emeriti people have a direct benefit.” Big lands, small opportunities. Chinese and Indian cities have blossomed with towers and large developments of their own, but unless the building was iconic, Hamilton says, those countries used local architects and engineers. Still, he says, the opportunities will open, if in small doses. “In China, the western architect is slowly being welcomed and they are starting to see the value in our engineering codes.” The economic transformation of both these nations has led to the emergence of a huge middle class that can now afford better living conditions. For Hamilton, that means an increase in requests for new building technologies that facilitate immediate, sustainable, and constructible design. History for the future. “This time should be instructive for a lot of people. History is a good teacher,” says Lance Benham, Senior Vice President of The Benham Companies (Oklahoma City, OK) owned by SAIC (San Diego, CA), a 900-employee full service planning and design firm. “As long as we understand what the sustainable goals are, we can plan ahead.” On the international level, power and water projects will be critical, Benham adds, not to draw populations, but rather to enhance standards of living. “Decentralized power and water solutions in developing countries—that’s the movement I see.” Looking ahead, Hamilton is also not discounting North Africa; which has remained relatively isolated from the economic situation of both sub-Saharan Africa and its neighbors to the west. “They are poised for good growth. They are pumping oil but haven’t developed horizontally or vertically. They are stabilizing from a governmental standpoint and their cities need infrastructure.”
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